Direktlänk till inlägg 7 maj 2011

Andrew Sentance förlorar sista striden över räntor

Av eva gopaz - 7 maj 2011 11:00

Andrew Sentance, den Bank of England : s mest högljudda hök, misslyckades i dag i sitt sista försök att övertala sina kollegor politiker att attackera inflationen med en räntehöjning.

Bankens penningpolitiska utskott kvar lånekostnader på is på deras rekordlåga 0,5% efter ny bevisning framkommit att återhämtningen i ekonomin körs ut i sanden. Den övervakade Inköpschefsindex för tjänster, som mäter förtroendet för sektorn minskade kraftigt från 57,1 till 54,3 i april, vilket understryker befarar att BNP-tillväxten försvagas ytterligare i takt med regeringens åtstramningsprogram börjar bita.

Vicky Pryce, Senior Managing Director på konsulttjänster FTI, sade: "Detta var Andrew Sentance s sista möte som en extern ledamot i utskottet en. Under de senaste månaderna har han varit medlem mest oroade över inflationsriskerna och var först med att rösta för ökar. Det ironiska är att hela hans tre år, banken aldrig upp räntorna . "

Bank guvernören Mervyn King och hans duvor i kommittén har genomfört en livlig offentlig debatt med Sentance de senaste månaderna. King har hävdat att en engångsåtgärd räntehöjning för att rädda MPC: s rykte skulle vara en "meningslös gest", som varnar för den potentiella effekten av högre upplåningskostnader på de fortfarande bräcklig ekonomi.

Fram till nyligen visade City investerarna en räntehöjning denna månad som en säkerhet, men har hastigt ompröva denna förutsägelse efter en massa dåliga ekonomiska nyheter.

"För andra gången på lika många månader de flesta ekonomer har ännu en gång sätta tillbaka med ytterligare tre månader deras förväntningar om när banken kommer att höjas", säger Ray Boulger, av inteckning mäklare John Charcol. "November verkar nu vara majoritetens uppfattning, men med ett ökande antal erkänna året kan sluta med låg fortfarande på 0,5%."

Bankens vänta-och-se metod återspeglades i Helsingfors, där Europeiska centralbanken, vid ett av sina regelbundna möten utanför Frankfurt, också lämnat räntorna på is, efter att höja dem till 1,25% förra månaden.

Talar vid en presskonferens efteråt förvånad ECB-chefen Jean-Claude Trichet marknader genom att vägra att signalera en andra räntehöjning nästa månad med frasen "stark vaksamhet". Han sade: "Vi kommer att fortsätta följa utvecklingen mycket noga med avseende på uppåtrisker för prisstabiliteten" - språk som investerare tolkas som pekar på en räntehöjning i juli eller augusti, i stället för juni.

ECB: s räntehöjning förra månaden sågs som den första i en serie samordnade. "För nu är åtminstone Trichet ger intryck av att gå, kör inte in i denna åtstramning cykel", sade Simon Smith, chefsekonom på FxPro.

Chris Williamson, chefsekonom på Markit, som sammanställer CIPS undersökningen sade nedgången i de offentliga utgifterna var en viktig förklaring till den svaga tjänstesektorn. "Det har varit en betydande förlust av drivkraft, säger han. "Det är framför allt kopplat till nedskärningar offentliga utgifterna. Vilka företag sade under det första kvartalet var att det var en överraskande stark ökning av utgifterna från myndigheter, och det har nu gått i backen."

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